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It is a well-known principle of economics that, in the production of almost any commodity, the law of increasing returns eventually gives way to the law of diminishing returns. If, therefore, the output of all commodities per man is plotted against the total population for any economic area at any given time, the resulting curve will be hillshaped, first rising to a summit and thereafter falling again. There will be a point, at the top of the hill, at which the output per man, and therefore the standard of living, is highest. This gives the 'optimum' population for the area and period concerned. There will also be a point, some way down on the far side of the hill, at which the output per man is only just sufficient to support life. This gives the 'maximum' population.
The shape of the hill and the position of the points are not of course unalterable. Indeed, the hill expands and the points recede with every improvement in the technique of production. But the fact that they are further from their starting point today than they were yesterday, and that they may be still further off tomorrow, does not prevent them from existing.
The Malthusian doctrine, which Professor Flugel here discusses, includes a theory and a recommendation. According to the theory, the population, if unchecked by abstinence or contraception, tends to reach its maximum—even though the maximum may be receding. It behaves, in Professor Flugel's analogy, like an express train which, if the brakes are not applied in time, would inevitably run into a slower goods train ahead. The recommendation is to apply the brakes and so to prevent the catastrophe of famine; and, we may perhaps add, to apply them in such a manner that the population is maintained, not merely below its maximum, but at or near its optimum where the highest standard of living can be enjoyed.
The theory is not difficult to grasp, and, once grasped, can hardly seem in doubt, while the recommendation points the way to the most ch