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This book deals with the complexity of the issue of the prediction of violence and the parameters of inquiry into violence. The authors' thesis is that continued efforts at prediction of violence is not only justified, but absolutely necessary because of the scope of the problem in our day.
The history of violent behavior in a given individual is noted to be perhaps the best single “objective” indicator of further dangerousness. The editors note that the probability of assaultiveness increases with each additional previous act of violence in an individual. The initial chapter prepared by Kenneth Tardiff, M.D., M.P.H., presents the thesis that a well-trained psychiatrist or mental health professional should be able to predict short-term violence potential in an individual using assessment techniques similar to those used to evaluate suicide potential. Parameters such as the appearance of the patient, how well planned the threat may be, the past history of violence and implusivity (the best predictor), a history of alcohol and drug use, organic mental disorders, psychotic phenomena, personality disorders, and demographic characteristics are all utilized in making these predictions.
There is also a chapter dealing with the prediction of assaultive behavior in psychiatric inpatients. This type of prediction utilizes a specific statistical model.
In a chapter dealing with the clinical and historical correlates of dangerous inpatient behavior, Yesavage and Brizer note that the research on violence prediction in the past has been hampered by methodological faults amenable to correction. That research in the prediction of violence may lend itself to state of the art psychiatric research technology and a “second generation” of research-based, short-term predictions, using statistical approaches warrants optimism.
Most helpful is a chapter prepared by David M. Bear, M.D., dealing with the