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The role of prediction in relation to the development of theory in psychoanalysis is discussed with special emphasis on the theory of psychoanalytic therapy. Predictability in analysis is made more difficult because of the number of variables including an uncontrollable and often unspecifiable future environment. Some predictive efforts in psychoanalysis have attempted to by-pass this problem by offering short-range predictions.
The Psychotherapy Research Project of the Menninger Foundation has made an effort at long-term prediction based on a detailed assessment of the patient's personality structure, illness, and the postulates of psychoanalytic theory of therapy based on the 'average expectable analysis' along with the 'average expectable environment'. In addition, the attempt is made to predict the consequences of crucial environmental stresses that are likely to occur. Predictability is then based on a tripartite 'if-then-because' logical prediction model in the form 'if these conditions are fulfilled, then these consequences will eventuate'. The author believes that in this way prediction can be successfully employed to validate theoretical psychoanalytic propositions in therapy.