The Use of Prediction in a Longitudinal Study

Given some information about a young expectant mother and her infant's behavior during the first months of its life, one feels tempted to predict the future development of this mother-infant relationship. For instance, Mrs. A. was happy during her pregnancy and eagerly anticipated the arrival of her first baby. Billy was born after a labor which Mrs. A. experienced as being much less painful than she had expected. From the very beginning she handled the baby competently, seemed particularly responsive to clues from him, and had great success in satisfying him. When Billy was three weeks of age the pediatrician noted that Mrs. A.'s way of comforting him seemed to be "all he needed and no more."

During the first nine to ten months Mrs. A. was described by everyone who saw her as a particularly warm and skillful mother, and the impression of unity and understanding between her and Billy was repeatedly commented upon. She seemed to set her limits in a way that aroused a minimum of protest from the baby. She anticipated no difficulty and seemed to feel perfectly sure that everything would go well between them, and so did everyone who observed them together. The prediction was made that Billy would fare well in his further development, especially since he showed surprising adaptability and smoothness in many of his physiological and maturational patterns.

As a newborn he was described as mature and moderately active. He expressed his wishes so clearly that they could easily be understood. He developed well, slept soundly and ate vigorously, and could